UMAR ARDO’S FAULTY ANALYSIS ON NORTH/SOUTHWEST ALLIANCE TO DEFEAT JONATHAN

To say that I was shocked when I read Dr Umar Ardo’s interview in a national daily, where he postulated that whenever there was alliance between Southwest and the North it always translate automatically to a victory, is to put it mildly. Why was I shocked? It is because Dr Ardo is a historian and an academic who should know better. Perhaps his years as a politician where he was special adviser to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and his fray as a gubernatorial aspirant in Adamawa State under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may have kept him away from books on political history of Nigeria. Ardo argued that such alliance between the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) led by the late Sardauna of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello and the Southwest led by late Samuel Akintola Ladoke resulted to NNDP winning parts of the Southwest in 1965. He said that it was the “alliance” between the North and Southwest that led to the overthrow of late head of state, General Aguiyi Ironsi and that “it was the strength of the alliance that contributed to the secession bid of the south-east and the civil war of 1967 to 1970”. He even attributed President Olusegun Obasanjo’s victory in 1999 to the alliance. He said that the only exception to this alliance was in 1979 when Alhaji Shehu Shagari picked Dr Alex Ekwueme from the south-east as running mate and won. He said that it was such alliance that made victory possible for Chief M.K.O. Abiola and Ambassador Babagana Kingibe in 1993 presidential election. He tried to insinuate that most of the time that former head of state, General Muhammadu Buhari had chosen somebody from the southeast as his vice presidential running mate; he had always lost the election. He added that in 2011 when Buhari choose a Southwest running mate, Pastor Tunde Bakari he lost because Bakari was not a politician. Dr Ardo’s campaign even as a card carrying member of PDP for President Goodluck Jonathan not to present himself for election in 2015 is well known. He has granted several syndicated interviews giving legal and moral reasons why Jonathan should not contest 2015 presidential election. Given the fact that he is a PDP member, the APC should do well to disregard his postulations on the North/Southwest alliance because it will not work. What Ardo called alliance between North and Southwest in the past were never alliances built on trust by the mainstream Southwest( read Yoruba) elite. That was why the so-called alliance that Sardauna had with Samuel Akintola Ladoke was opposed by Chief Obafemi Awolowo( mainstream Yoruba undisputed leader) and the result was the crisis that engulfed the Southwest which was a precursor to the first military coup and ultimately the civil war. Perhaps the most laughable of his postulations was that it was north/southwest alliance that gave Obasanjo presidency in 1999. Most discernable Nigerians at the time are aware that the Yoruba totally rejected Obasanjo in 1999 presidential election which he won through the massive votes he garnered from North, south-south and south-east. If it was the alliance of North and Southwest that gave Abiola presidency in 1993, was it the alliance that also annulled Abiola’s victory? I am sure that many southwest military officers would disagree that they joined alliance with North to kill Aguiyi Ironsi, because the Ironsi affair was largely a northern officers’ arrangement. With respect to the civil war it was south-east against the rest of Nigeria and the world powers. In the case of Buhari, the former head of state has blamed the rigging machine of PDP which Ardo is a member for losing previous presidential elections and not because of the zone his vice presidential candidates came from.

I have said it before that the north can get the presidency if it is united(19 states plus Abuja) and had a successful alliance with southwest(six states) under the leadership of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. If this alliance being worked out by Tinubu and Buhari succeed, it will be the first time in history that the mainstream southwest(now lead by Tinubu) will successfully help a northerner to be elected president.  In my treatise “ North, 2015 presidency is yours, only you can lose it”, I made it clear that the north can easily take over Aso Rock, if it can pick a unifier from the region as its presidential candidate. I warned that if it chooses a divisive candidate the election will be lost even before the first vote is cast.