THE GEOGRAPHY OF DIVIDED NIGERIA(II)

Let me reiterate that I do not support the breakup of present day Nigeria. This is purely academic and to show those who are making noises in support of breakup that it is not as easy as they think. To me if countries like India and China with over one billion populations each are successful economies, Nigeria of only 120million can also be successful. Atomisation of Nigeria is not the solution. People are talking about breakup as solution because we are a nation that lacks deep thinking and likes quick fixes to our problems. Have you noticed that Nigerian pedestrians do not want to use foot bridges on highways! Mere climbing the bridge is a burden and they rather risk being knocked down on the highway than use the bridge. That is the way we are, cutting corners here and there. With such mind-set some of us think that breakup will make each ethnic enclave Eldorado or Paradise. Read and think.  

IF NIGERIA DIVIDES WITH RIVERS NIGER AND BENUE MARKING ITS BORDERS

If natural boundaries created by Rivers Niger and Benue are to determine the size and shape of divided Nigeria, we will be left with the Republic of Southern Nigeria and the Republic of Northern Nigeria.

REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN NIGERIA

The present 19 northern states and the Federal Capital Territory(FCT) will constitute citizens of the Republic of Northern Nigeria. It may choose to leave Abuja as its capital, because it has the best infrastructure in the country. The Republic of Northern Nigeria accounts for more than 50 per cent of present Nigeria’s population(2006 census figures). It has more than 60% share of Nigeria’s landmass with abundant natural resources and agricultural potential and solid minerals. It can attract international capital from the Mediterranean and Islamic financial system. It is populated by very entrepreneurial people and one of their famous entrepreneurs Alhaji Aliko Dangote is the richest man in Africa(Forbes). Solid minerals to power its economy include barytes, kaolin, zircon, monazite, marble, limestone, sphalenite, quartz, galena, glass sand and gemstones, talc, gypsum, iron ore, lead/zinc, bentonite, gold, bitumen, coal, rock salt etc. The market for these minerals is large, sustainable and expanding because of their numerous applications in manufacturing and construction industries.

DRAWBACKS TO THE EMERGENCE OF REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN NIGERIA

It is landlocked; it has no access to the sea to import what it cannot produce or export its rich agricultural produce, except it reaches agreement to import and export through the ports of Republic of Southern Nigeria in Lagos, Port Harcourt or Calabar or the new port that is about to be built in Akwa Ibom State. It can also decide to use Benin Republic ports if it does not want to relate with its former countrymen or adversaries. A typical example of a landlocked country is Southern Sudan, which uses Mombasa port in Kenya for its import and export and is building an ambitious oil pipeline from Southern Sudan to Mombasa port for the export of its oil, all in a bid to avoid trade link with their former adversaries in old Sudan. It can also use airfreight for its imports and exports. Being rich in agriculture with its large production of tomatoes and other vegetables, freight transport will aid its export of these perishable commodities to Europe and other parts of the world.

FEAR OF RELIGIOUS MINORITIES

This republic is predominately Muslim and Sharia is likely to be the official legal system of the country. It must however have to find a way to accommodate its large Christian population. It remains to be seen whether the Christian dominated parts of this territory, like Plateau, Benue, Taraba, Nasarawa and others with large Christian population like Kogi, parts of Adamawa, Southern Borno, and Southern Kaduna would want to be part of this republic. If they are to remain in this republic, they are likely to be governed by secular laws, while the rest part of the country will be governed under Islamic law.

All these postulations depend on the kind of break-up; whether it will be spontaneous violent breakup in the midst of Civil War 11, or negotiated separation. If it is in a midst of civil war, it could be the most messy in the continent, however if it is done by negotiation, the Christian north, which largely represent the so-called Middle Belt could form a separate country. However, because of the amorphous nature of the Middle Belt which extends as far as Southern Borno, it remains to be seen what its exact geography would look like without mass migration of people like witnessed when Pakistan was carved out of India in 1948 and many Muslims were forced to leave their ancestral homes to join fellow Muslims in the newly born Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

Aside the issue of geography, this country faces challenges of education backwardness and lack of manpower. But those are challenges it could overcome with purposeful leadership. All the same I do not expect this part of the present day Nigeria to clamour for breakup and its leaders have not been among those making the most noises about the breakup of the country. I see their leaders standing up to defend one Nigeria. However the asymmetry nature of society makes human behaviour unpredictable. Civil War 11, can alter all the equations about the indivisibility of Nigeria. It is a war that must be avoided at all cost.

REPUBLIC OF SOUTHERN NIGERIA

It has about half the population of present Nigeria based on the 2006 census. This area is predominately Christian and large Muslim population in Yoruba land in particular. It is likely to operate secular laws with perhaps Sharia laws in parts of Southwest.  It also has most of the solid mineral deposits found in the Republic of Northern Nigeria which can power its economy. Most importantly it has oil which accounts for over 90% of the revenue used in running the economy of present day Nigeria. If it separate from the north it would still remain the sixth largest exporter of oil, but with lesser mouths to feed. It has a highly educated and entrepreneurial population at home and abroad. It has seaports of international standard for imports and exports. Lagos, Port Harcourt and Calabar are major cities that owe their origin to being port cities.

It is a historical fact that Nigeria was amalgamated in 1914 by Lord Lugard because Lugard needed the economic surplus of the south to balance the deficit in the north.

DRAWBACKS TO THE EMERGENCE OF REPUBLIC OF SOUTHERN NIGERIA

Ethnic rivalry will kill this republic before it is born. The mutual dislike that the Igbo and Yoruba, the most dominant groups, in this country have against each other, it would have a big challenge to survive. With the way the two tribes despise each other on social media and at every other opportunity, they have to bury a lot of bottled up hatred to be part of the same country. Perhaps the only thing that unites them is their mutual fear and dislike of Hausa-Fulani domination. Chinua Achebe’s “There Was A Country” and Governor Babatunde Fashola’s deportation of Igbos from Lagos are pointers to the no love lost between the two “races”. They may be better-off in separate countries.

Similarly the distrust of the Yoruba and Igbo by the southern minorities can make this union unworkable. It was the distrust of the Yoruba that led to the creation of Midwestern Nigeria in present day Edo and Delta states. Similar distrust exists between the Igbo and the minorities of present day Rivers, Bayelsa, Cross River and Akwa Ibom states. If such mutual suspicion were not resolved we may have in this area three republics; Oduduwa Republic, Niger Delta Republic and Republic of Biafra. Next time this blog will examine the viability of these republics, including the Middle Belt Republic of Nigeria.