Jonathan Or Buhari: Nigeria Between A Rock And A Hard Place

Jonathan

Buhari

 

The latest summary of intelligence reports by the United States and United Kingdom on the forthcoming presidential election in Nigeria indicated that between the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), President Goodluck Jonathan and the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), General Muhammadu Buhari whoever emerges victorious would preside over a country whose future is uncertain.

According to the reports if President Jonathan wins, the result would be disputed by the APC who are already alleging plots by the government to manipulate the elections scheduled for March 28 and April 11. But that was not the major worry to the West. It is the spontaneous violence that would take over many states in the north that is their greatest worry. The North East of Nigeria has been at the centre of Boko Haram insurgency and anything that would led to more violence across the north may go way beyond the capacity of Nigerian government to handle. This may have dire consequences for the continuous existence of Nigeria as one indivisible entity and create major refugee crisis, the biggest ever in West Africa.

On the other hand if General Muhammadu Buhari wins, the north would be largely peaceful except of course Boko Haram enclaves in the North East, while violence would be expected from the Niger Delta who would feel short-changed that one of their own, President Jonathan was not allowed to enjoy the constitutionally allowed eight years in power by the north that used its large population to undermine his electoral victory for a second term. Nigeria’s economy is dependent on crude oil from the Niger Delta region. There are grounds to fear that the Niger Delta militants would start massive destruction of oil installations and kidnapping of expatriates working in the oil industry. This would cripple Nigeria’s economy. Already Nigeria’s economy is in a dire strait following the slump in world oil prices. A situation where Nigeria may not have crude oil to export as a result of militancy in the Niger Delta and destruction of oil facilities means that the economy of Nigeria may collapse which would have consequences on the whole West African economy. Militancy in Niger Delta combined with Boko Haram insurgency in the North East would task the capacity of both the government and the military and if they are not able to handle these two war fronts, Nigeria’s demise is imminent or at best what would be left of Nigeria would be similar to Somalia and Afghanistan where warlords control parts of the country.