2015: Can Jonathan ‘Stand The Heat In The Kitchen’ After His Expected Victory?

President Jonathan

President Goodluck Jonathan on November 11, 2014 officially declared that he would contest for a second term of office after several months of campaign by several groups for him to do the “needful”. He has answered the clarion call. Even before yesterday’s official declaration the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had several weeks back endorsed him as the sole presidential candidate of the party. That was a literal shutting of the door for anyone with ambition to challenge him. There was none of weight even among the PDP governors to challenge him as most of them have opted for the less fancied senatorial seats in their states.

The more ambitious PDP governors or the “trouble makers” have since left the party for the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) to pursue their presidential ambitions or their effort to ensure that Jonathan is not re-elected in 2015.

Only the undiscerning would not know that Jonathan is likely to win the presidential election in 2015. However it is going to be at a great cost. Some political actors have already warned that many more people would be killed in 2015. Jonathan will be naïve to think that these actors are making empty threats. Several thousands have died in the past four years, all due to power struggle among the political elite and because the blood of the innocent means nothing to the selfish Nigerian politicians, thousands of more deaths in 2015 would also mean nothing to them.

As I write the heat at the Aso Rock Villa’s kitchen is suffocating and the president has not shown sufficient evidence that he could take further suffocation in 2015 when the stake would be a lot higher. The next round of oil blocks’ allocations are said to be likely next year and some elite appears not to trust Jonathan that he would play ball. Their war chest is said to be enormous to the extent they can challenge that of the presidency.

While he was announcing his declaration yesterday, the president noted that there were no political prisoners in Nigeria since he became president. Recall that under President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, the former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and the former minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai have to run to exile and did not return to the country until the death of Yar’Adua and the emergence of Jonathan as president. So the president is right to take credit on the favourable climate for the opposition to thrive.

However if Jonathan is to successfully confront those bent on burning down the house since the heat in the kitchen has not been able to chase him out of the house, he must be ready to take no prisoners. According to Machiavelli in the Prince, it is better for the King to be feared than to be loved. If he has no capacity to raise the iron fist, let him quietly stop down now, so that many more innocent people would not die. Nigerians does not want a Jonathan in 2015 who when thousands of people are being killed in already well known trouble spots all he can offer is that the “perpetrators would be brought to book”. By now the books of Jonathan must be full that it can no longer accommodate anymore. He must be firm. He must deploy soldiers to stop those who by their utterances are hell bent on bringing the roof down. He must do it even before the first bloods are shed after the presidential election. He must be able to ignore the hypocrisy of the international community who would accuse him of human rights violation. The rights of vulnerable millions of Nigerians that would be wasted is far more important than the restriction of movement of those leaders determined to set the country on fire. If Jonathan does not have the capacity to confront those that want to destroy the country and want to play  his usual political correctness let him not run. He must be ready to win both the war and the battle in 2015. Anything short of that is a disaster for his second term and Nigeria.