2023: Roadmap To Southern President Without Conservative North Support

Southern Governors

 The reactions trailing the Southern Governors resolution in Lagos recently that the next president of the country must come from the South indicate that this position has been widely welcomed by a cross-section of Nigerians, including many Northerners, except the conservative North that has dismissed it using the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) as its mouthpiece.

The conservative North we should realize is the strong base of President Muhammadu Buhari. Like former President Donald Trump of the United States plays to his base, so does Buhari to his conservative base. They are the ones insisting on open grazing despite its drawbacks and are his cheerleaders in resurrecting the so-called grazing routes and grazing areas. But they could not make him president in all his years of trying to be president until he came down from his high horse and pretended that he has shed his conservative ideology and was embraced by the South West and a section of the North Central who never voted for him before, in 2015 and the rest is history.

These conservative Northerners are digging in and are the brain behind the present shenanigan that power should remain in the North after Buhari’s 8 years presidency. What they have failed to realize is that a president from the South is possible, IF THERE IS FREE AND FAIR ELECTION, without the conservative North’s support.

If the Southern Governors who have resolved that the region must produce the next president are committed to the cause and give it their all in a united front the presidency of the country from the South is not difficult at all. If the South remains united it will produce the next president. This is how.

If the 17 Southern Governors work in unison for a presidential candidate from the South, that is 17 states in the bag for their preferred candidate.

The battleground for the 2023 presidential election will be the states in the progressive North who have suffered a lot in the past six years due to the failure of the conservative North to reign in the bandits and killer herdsmen who have terrorized the progressive North destroying their villages and killing their people with impunity.

This progressive North is well aware that Buhari being succeeded by another hardliner like him would compound their problem. Already many of them are dying of hunger and starvation, as they can no longer go to farm even as bandits and killer herdsmen have taken over their villages and communities and in some absurd cases renaming their communities.

For instance, in Plateau State, according to a document obtained by Saturday Vanguard in 2018, over 54 communities in Plateau State have been taken over by the killer herdsmen with many of the occupied communities renamed. The occupied communities with the old and new names include; “Rotchun (aka Rafin Acha), Dankum (renamed “Mahanga”), Hywa (renamed”Lugere”), Fass (renamed “Tafawa”), Diyan-Hei; and Maseh (renamed “Lugel”), among others as reported by Vanguard.

In Kaduna State president of Southern Kaduna Peoples Union (SOKAPU) Hon. Jonathan Asake has spoken severally of ethnic cleansing. So there is general discontent in progressive North from Benue to Taraba, from Nasarawa to Kogi, and from Plateau to FCT Abuja and these Northerners will want a power shift to the South as they have no hope in another conservative Northerner succeeding Buhari.

The constitution of Nigeria says a presidential candidate must win two-thirds of 36 states of Nigeria and the FCT and also have the necessary geographical spread. Therefore a Southern presidential candidate with 17 Southern states in the bag needs five states in the battleground states of Middlebelt and he is home and dry as the next president.

This is my projection. With 17 Southern states in his bag, the Southern presidential candidate in a free and fair election will win Plateau State, Benue State, Nasarawa State, Taraba State, Kogi State, Gombe State, Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja. And this candidate can easily get 25 percent of votes cast in Bauchi State, Kebbi State, and Adamawa State, and with the support of Southern Kaduna people get over 40 percent of votes in Kaduna State. This is enough to make a Southern President in 2023 without the support of the Conservative North. First, the South must be united and the rest will be history. The ball is in the court of Southern leaders.