2015: Why Jonathan, Buhari’s Supporters Are Confident Of Victory

Jonathan

Buhari
 

In the camp of President Goodluck Jonathan confidence is high that their candidate would win the 2015 presidential election, what with the apparent certainty that former head of state, General Muhammadu Buhari is going to be the presidential candidate of the opposition, All Progressives Congress (APC).

In the minds of Jonathan’s strategists, Buhari is a fair game, a perennial loser who had been defeated by the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2003, 2007 and 2011 and they believe that 2015 is not going to be different.

Their strategy is the same as in previous elections. Cast Buhari in the mode of ethnic and religious bigot who wants to impose his belief on other Nigerians. Drum it to the ears of scared Christians that this man allegedly told Muslims to vote only Muslims to power not minding that the man has denied this and those making the allegation have not provided any proof of him making such admonishment to Muslims. He is also to be cast as sympathetic to the Boko Haram insurgents, even though the former head of state has severally condemned their activities including the day that he declared for president where he described the sect members as “godless”. With this strategy they hope to cruise to victory. Really?

Before they forget, Jonathan’s strategists should realise that 2015 is not 2003, 2007 or even 2011. Buhari’s religion, ethnicity or alleged previous comments may not work this time around. Recently when Sahara Reporters asked their readers who they would vote for between Buhari and Jonathan if elections were held now, Buhari beat Jonathan overwhelmingly. Now you can say that Sahara Reporters’ readers and the online media which is very anti-Jonathan may have skewed the poll against Jonathan, but when pro-Jonathan media did their own to counter Sahara Reporters poll, Buhari was still leading Jonathan until somehow Jonathan emerged victorious. No doubt Jonathan’s people was embarrassed. But that should be an eye opener and a warning that non-Muslims perception of Buhari is changing and changing fast. Jonathan’s strategists must rethink their strategy or they will be shocked by the outcome of the 2015 presidential election.

On the other hand, Buhari’s people are breaming with confidence too. President Jonathan has been weakened by his government’s inability to provide security in the North East hotbed of Boko Haram insurgency and in other parts of the North. Over 13,000 killed in the last four years by the insurgents and still counting. The inability of the government to rescue the abducted Chibok girls who were kidnapped by Boko Haram for over six months has drawn the world’s attention to the government’s failings. While Nigeria’s economy has become the largest in Africa, this has not translated to improved standard of living for majority of Nigerians. In a country where the public relish symbolism, no public official has been paraded on hand-cuff for corruption by either the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission(EFCC) or Independent Corrupt Practices and other related offences Commission (ICPC) which had been interpreted as a tolerance for corruption by Jonathan administration. $20 billion oil money was alleged to be missing from NNPC’s vault. The man who made the allegation as the Central Bank Bank (CBN) governor and now Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi could not substantiate his allegation before the Senate Committee on Finance led by the former governor of Kaduna State, Senator Ahmed Makarfi. Yet the man in the street still believe that $20billion is missing. Corruption has become so common in the country that every public official is adjudged guilty of corruption until proven innocent. And even if the court says the official is innocent, in the court of public opinion the man is guilty as charged. All these negative indices appear to give more confidence to Buhari’s supporters not forgetting the Southwest support from Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and support from Rivers State governor, Mr Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi in the South-South. Not to talk of Kano votes which will overwhelmingly go to Buhari.

For Buhari to win in 2015, he needs to do more work in the Southwest that is the battle ground zone that would determine the winner of the election. The invisibility of Tinubu in the Southwest has been called to question especially with the routing of APC in Ekiti governorship election recently. APC has to cry blue murder even to retain Osun State. In most APC states in the Southwest the governors are on shaky grounds. Jonathan is determined to win Southwest and Buhari should also pray that Tinubu’s alleged ill-health does not deteriorate at the run up to the election. If Buhari’s strategists think that most Nigerians are blaming only Jonathan for the insecurity they are wrong. Many people in the south and parts of the north still believe that the insurgency was created by some northern elite to make Nigeria ungovernable for Jonathan. Jonathan can still get their sympathy vote. There are many Buhari’s supporters still insisting that North must produce the next president. Buhari should avoid such supporters because it alienate his supporters in the south. It is also going to cost Buhari if his strategists continue to promote claim that Jonathan has not achieved anything in four years, because Jonathan has done things. I am not a politician but I know that Jonathan has built 12 federal universities, nine of them in the north; he built almajiri schools all over the north; is building rail lines where they don’t exist before, like between Abuja and Kaduna; he is revitalising the rail system and Nigerians are using rail transport for the first time in years; the airports are wearing new looks; agriculture is being transformed while the power sector is reformed and the benefits would soon become apparent. Buhari should concentrate on telling Nigerians how he would do better. The mantra of corruption may also not work. This is because both APC and PDP are populated by corrupt people. In fact many of those who would bankroll Buhari’s campaign are corrupt. This election will be tight. The president may not emerge at the first ballot. The race is open.