2015: Obasanjo Has No Electoral Value To PDP Or APC

“How many troops does the Pope commands?” asks Napoleon.

Beyond his nuisance value, it beats my imagination why the old despot, former president Olusegun Obasanjo is getting all the attention he is getting from the ruling Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) and the major opposition party, the All Progressives Congress(APC). In decent climes a former president whose moral standing even within his immediate family is questionable and who as minister of petroleum for eight years left a lot of questions unanswered is the least qualified to be “beautiful bride” of Nigerian politics being courted by the PDP and the APC.

Aside his moral and corruption hangovers which disqualify him to determine what is right for Nigeria in terms of our choice of leadership in 2015, Obasanjo lacked any electoral value to the major political parties to warrant President Goodluck Jonathan, senate president David Mark and PDP national chairman, Mallam Adamu Muazu fawning around him begging him to “forgive” them of whatever sin and endorse their presidential calculations. Before we forget, this is the same Obasanjo who was so routed in what may be termed the micro-politics of Ogun State by Otunba Gbenga Daniel that he was unable to get his own biological daughter re-elected to the Senate. A man who could not secure such a passage in a small area as his senatorial district in Ogun State for his daughter a few years after he left office, how could he secure the presidency for Jonathan or APC, eight years after he no longer call the shots at Aso Rock Villa? Obasanjo as it is cannot guarantee anyone whether Jonathan or Buhari the support of the Southwest which for all intent and purposes would determine who becomes president in 2015.

The man who would determine the direction of Southwest in 2015 needs no introduction. Hate him or love him, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the leader of APC and former governor of Lagos State has the votes of much of the Southwest “in his pockets like so many nickels and diamonds.” It is whoever that he wants that can draw water from the electoral wells of the Southwest. This is the man who Jonathan needs, this is the man General Muhammadu Buhari or Vice President Atiku Abubakar or Mr. Sam Nda-Isaiah needs if any of them emerges the presidential flag bearer of the APC.

I was even more surprised that Tinubu was among those fawning around Obasanjo over 2015 presidential election when he knew fully well how he routed Obasanjo and PDP even with federal might in the Southwest. If I were in Jonathan’s situation room where strategies are decided, I would have recommended that Jonathan should meet with Tinubu and find out why the APC leader who apparently helped him to get Southwest votes in 2011 is so mad with his leadership four years after. That is where the key that would unlock the Southwest votes in 2015 lies and not with Obasanjo.

Tinubu does not only have the votes of the Southwest in his pockets he also has a significant section of the Nigerian media in his back pockets, little wonder that Jonathan has been feeling the heat in the kitchen and I can guarantee that the heat in the kitchen will get hotter as 2015 presidential election approaches. In the new media or social media there are armies of Tinubu lashing out to every moves of Jonathan too. Obasanjo has never been media friendly and thus has very few friends in the media. The only attention he gets these days is when he says something that hurts Jonathan and PDP and the pro-Tinubu media would lap on it to show deep gulf between Obasanjo and his supposed Godson Jonathan and not because they have any respect for Obasanjo who himself has no respect for the media.

It is indisputable that the 2015 presidential election would be determined in the battle ground states of  the Southwest and the man who holds the key is Tinubu and not Obasanjo. If the political strategists of Jonathan and that of the presidential aspirants of APC are not already working on how to capture this battle ground zone, their principals have already lost the election even before the first vote is cast. Even though Obasanjo is from the Southwest zone, he has little control over what happens there.