2015: IS AL-MUSTAPHA, JONATHAN’S GAME CHANGER ?

The release by the Appeal Court of the Chief Security Officer (CSO) to former head of state, General Sani Abacha, Major Hamza Al-Mustapha may have altered the political equation in the north ahead of the all-important 2015 presidential election. While it was the Appeal Court that released him when it quashed the death sentence passed on him by the High Court, the political capital and benefit of his release may indeed be enjoyed by President Goodluck Jonathan unless the opposition come up with a strategy to diminish the impact Mustapha may have ahead of 2015 election. Already the feeling among the masses in the north is that it was Jonathan that freed Al-Mustapha. Given the jubilation throughout the north over his release and the mammoth crowd that received him in Kano, there is no debate that aside former head of state, General Muhammadu Buhari, Al-Mustapha is perhaps the most popular northerner in the country at the moment. Why are many northerners giving Jonathan credit for his release even when it was a “notorious fact” that it was the court that freed him? This is because over the years many Northerners believe that his incarceration was more political than criminal based. First it was former head of state, General Abdulsalami Abubakar ‘s regime that detained him. Later he was accused of plot to overthrow the civilian government, which is aside the murder charge he was facing over the death of Alhaja Kudirat Abiola, the wife of the presumed winner of the 1993 presidential election that was annulled by the military. Obasanjo who was convicted of alleged coup plot against Abacha’s government, in which Al-Mustapha was a key player, never made any pretension that he wanted the former CSO freed. All campaigns for his release failed on deaf ears. If Al-Mustapha thought that he could get his freedom when a fellow northerner in the person of Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua became president, he was wrong. Yar’Adua ignored him and his problems. It was the opinion of many that Umaru considered what was happening to Al-Mustapha, as the former CSO’s comeuppance given that Umaru’s elder brother, General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua died in custody under the watch of Abacha’s government that detained him. However, under Jonathan from the South-south, who is presently facing his staunchest opposition from the north ahead of the 2015 election, Al-Mustapha has been released. Little wonder many Northerners are interpreting “this gesture” as a rapprochement between Jonathan and the north.

As if to add credence to this thinking, look at the man Al-Mustapha has been showering praises upon, on his release and calling him “my father”, Dr Frederick Fasheun, the founder of Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC), who to his credit has been consistent in his agitation for the former CSO’s freedom, he (Fasheun) is Jonathan’s man any day. Only recently the OPC faction he leads declared their unequivocal support for the re-election bid of Jonathan in 2015. Some people have interpreted OPC’s support for Jonathan to the alleged plan by the presidency to award some mouth-watering contract to Fasheun’s faction of OPC to protect oil pipelines in the Southwest from vandalisation. Similar contracts have been awarded to ex-militant leaders in the Niger Delta, where pipeline vandalism is rampant. There is little doubt that in the days ahead Al-Mustapha’s utterances and body language would be closely monitored by the northern establishment, the opposition parties and of course the presidency. Will Al-Mustapha’s honey moon with the northern masses come to an end once he declares support for Jonathan’s re-election bid especially at a time Buhari still enjoys unprecedented adulation in the region? Can Al-Mustapha deliver “core north” to Jonathan? As they say, only time will tell. It appears certain that one way or the other Al-Mustapha will have a major impact on the political equation of the north in 2015 and beyond. I am also interested on the much publicised visit of Al-Mustapha to Prophet T.B. Joshua(love him or hate him) once he was released from prison. As the story goes and as told by the prophet himself, several years ago when T.B. Joshua was held by the NDLEA over what turned out to be trumped up allegations, he met with the then powerful CSO to Abacha, and prophesied to him that he would spend many years in prison and that he would be later set free “to fulfil his destiny”. At the time Al-Mustapha was given the prophesy he did not believe it. Why should he? He was at the time on top of his game and his principal, Abacha, was in-charge “he dey kampe”, apologies to Obasanjo. Perhaps  in the thinking of Al-Mustapha the first part of the prophesy had come true, it now remains the second part, “to fulfil his destiny”. Is it the destiny of Al-Mustapha to help Jonathan become president again in 2015?