Jonathan, Buhari: Whoever Carries Battleground South West Becomes Nigeria’s President

Jonathan

Buhari

 

The presidential election that would hold on March 28, 2015 in Nigeria is likely to be the closest in the history of the country. And the battleground zone is the South West geo-political zone populated by the Yoruba, one of the biggest ethnic nationalities in Nigeria. It is therefore obvious that whoever wins 70 per cent of the votes cast in this zone between the incumbent and presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan and the presidential candidate of the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) would become the next president of Nigeria.

It was in apparent realisation of this stack reality that the presidential candidate of the PDP, President Jonathan has literally relocated to the South West to be in touch with the people as it appears that he is not content with staying in Abuja for his party’s campaigners in the South West to do the needful. This is the third time that the South West would be determining the president of Nigeria since 1999.

It would be recalled that the South West was a core opposition base at the return of democracy in the country in 1999. Even though at the time Nigerians unanimously conceded the presidency of the country to the zone to assuage their bruised ego that was deflected when the military annulled the 1993 presidential election which Chief MKO Abiola, from the zone was poised to win, the choice of the zone was Chief Olu Falae who was the presidential candidate of the Yoruba dominated Alliance for Democracy (AD). Falae was rejected by Nigerians in favour of another Yoruba man, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Chief Obasanjo lost woefully in the South West including his ward at Ota, Ogun State, however he won the presidential election with votes from the North, South-South and South East. As a result the Yoruba did not play a major role in the emergence of Nigeria’s president in 1999.

However the situation changed in 2003 presidential election. At the time the north who played key role in Obasanjo’s emergence with the understanding that he would do only one term was no longer ready to support him for second term. Alarmed by the prospect of defeat in his second term bid without solid northern backing, Obasanjo who claimed to be a nationalist, shrieked to ethnic politics by reaching agreement with the Yoruba dominated AD to support him for second term. Obasanjo’s kinsmen obliged him and he won his second term which eventually led to the death of AD as a major force in Nigeria’s politics.

In 2007 AD had metamorphosed to Action Congress (AC) a brain child of the former governor of Lagos State, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The party reverted to its traditional opposition politics and the PDP won the presidential election.

However the situation changed in 2011 when the ACN with stronghold in the zone rejected its presidential candidate, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and voted for Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan of the PDP. It is still subject of discourse by Nigerians how Jonathan was able to pull off this major political master stroke in the zone.

Four years later the political map of Nigeria has seen a major shift to the advantage of the opposition. The ACN which control four states out of six in the South West was able to reach alliance with major northern political party Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) led by General Muhammadu Buhari along with a section of the South East dominated All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) together with four aggrieved PDP governors in the North and one in the South-South to form the All Progressives Congress (APC) that is giving the PDP a run for its money.

To win the South West Jonathan is busy wooing the South West with the implementation of the national confab report. The report among other recommendations want to see Nigeria practise true federalism. True federalism had been the political mantra of the South West and the elite of the zone had clamoured for it. It is a campaign tool that is working for Jonathan in the zone. While some Yoruba elites led by Tinubu have said that Jonathan was not sincere when he convoked the national conference and that the report is a political gimmick, the fact remains that the Yoruba elites opposed to it has not interrogated Buhari whether he would convoke his own confab or implement the confab report. Thus beyond the slogan of fighting corruption, Buhari has nothing new to sale to the zone. Some of the zone’s elites were right to reason that while corruption is a major issue, the structural defect of the country is the major reason why the cankerworm festers. That may help the highly sophisticated South West voters to vote in favour of Jonathan who coming from Niger Delta appreciates the need for true federalism in Nigeria.